CHRISTMAS AND 2020 NEW YEAR

By : Bayu Wauran and Toni Sudibyo

On Friday, December 13th, 2019, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) had ordered the State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief, the National Police chief and the Indonesia’s Military commander to guard and to make Christmas 2019 and 2020 new year celebration around Indonesia must be saved and eliminate any potential hurdles which could make those event does not run well.

Further, President had said all of Indonesian people must keep the spirit of tolerance, spirit of honor another religion faith follower and to keep ourselves environment from whom will make disorder or bother Christmas and new year celebration in Indonesia.

I believe if BIN, the National Police and the Indonesia Military have been making their prediction related to those two event and reported it to the President. Three state strategic institutions have still been monitoring the current condition and the next one.

However, Christmas eve and new year celebration are moment which usually do around the world, but several militant organization and cell terror around the World have rejected to celebrate two moments because it had forbidden to do related to their religious teaching which they were believe in. Those groups are potentially making bother actions on those two events.

As we know together, in Indonesia has several active militant, intolerance, and cell terror groups. They have linked with other multinational militant and terror groups. They have been following whatever order which has directly and indirectly been given to them. On Telegram, several groups terror had changed their target from police personell to foreign tourist. Foreign tourist being their target, because militant and terror groups had blamed them as main actors whom have been made destruction to Muslim’s norm and values. Because of that, an intelligence and security community including foreign tourist must vigilance on those information.

But if we are looking the history of terror attacks around Indonesia, we can learn that their attacks pattern has still same such us through suicide bombing, stabbing into crowd, random shooting and attacking churches, vital places, entertainment venues, including police, intelligence and military personell and their base.

Basically, terror groups cell and cadre will attacks their target if the vigil process has loophole or the target has not perfectly security protection and if circuumstances have been supporting their plan especially if “security gap” from “center of gravity” has created.

*The writer are security and intelligence observer.