By : Toni Ervianto
At least 8 days coming day, we will enter the new year. 2020 is not enough safe than 2019. Ideology, politic, economic, security, including foreign issues will be predicted more complex, asymetric and even turbulence.
Several issues related to foreign problems such as the existence of terror groups and its cell in Sub Sahara Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia especially in Middle East, including “unstructure and unorder threats” such as stabbing, mass shooting, kidnapping and beheading will more occur in United States and several countries in Europe especially UK, Netherland, Germany, Frances, Belgium and Spain.
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Terror groups such as IS, Iswap or Boko Haram, Al Qaeda, and others will search their next target to occupy in Africa. Benin, Togo, Mali, and Rwanda will be bothered by cell groups terror.
Another issues such trade war between China and US, trade tensions between US and several countries such as France, Canada, Mexico, India and Russia, it could be made global economic recession and added with slump in development goals and the possibility of currency war between Remimbi/Yuan vs US Dollar. The main world economic players, only China and India are predicted with 5,5 percent to 6 percent economic development projection in 2020. United States has 2 percent, Germany the strongest economic country in Europe has 2,3 percent and still has problems in manufacture sectors.
Meantime, the future of Europe economic after Brexit deals in UK will be predicted, its more turbulence and unstable because Brexit brings the new economic regulation which can change political, economic and security landscape in Europe.
After Donald Trump’s impeachment had done, Democratic party have big chance to win the 2020 US presidential elections. Trump will be followed two former US presidents who had impeached. Joe Biden has big chance to be the next US president.
Others issue such as climate change and ultimate weather will occur in several countries. Landslide, flood, forest burn, earthquake, smog smear etc will make development and economic stagnan.
Pension systems, oil and gas price hike, unemployment, anti-Muslim law, low education condition, influx and unstop refugee problems, state border disputes, sectarian war and North Korea’s nuclear programme are coloring foreign issues in 2020 which must be prudentially tackled in order all of those problems do not bring global situation in 2020 more worst than ever. Eventhough, world war 3 will not occur in 2020 but “small battle” can occur everywhere. Be vigilance, alert and watch your back. Hopefully.
*) The writer had earned master degree at the University of Indonesia (UI)